Campaign

Trump, Biden both tumble in Iowa: poll

Former President Trump and President Biden both saw their support tumble in the early primary state of Iowa, according to a new poll. 

An Emerson College poll of Iowa Republican caucus voters showed support for Trump currently sits at 49 percent, a drop from 62 percent in May. Meanwhile, a poll of Iowa Democratic caucus voters showed that Biden’s support now sits at 50 percent, a drop from 69 percent in May.

Both Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and former Vice President Mike Pence’s numbers also dropped from May; DeSantis’s numbers went from 20 percent to 14 percent, and Pence decreased from 5 percent to 3 percent support.

Meanwhile, conservative entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) appeared to be gaining some ground, both rising 5 points. Ramaswamy increased from 2 percent to 7 percent, and Scott from 3 percent to 8 percent. 

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum also saw slight raises of 2 points each. Haley went from 5 percent to 7 percent and Burgum from 1 percent to 3 percent support.

Six percent of Republican caucus voters were undecided, the poll found.

In Iowa’s Democratic presidential caucus, both of Biden’s 2024 rivals — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and author Marianne Williamson — also dipped slightly. Kennedy dropped 2 points, from 11 percent to 9 percent, while Williamson dropped 3 points, from 10 percent to 7 percent. 

“While both Biden and Trump have lost some support in Iowa, it does not appear that any other candidate has been able to emerge as a clear alternative,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Republicans saw DeSantis fall back into the pack, as the vote splintered amongst a crowded field, and Kennedy and Williamson have failed to gain traction in Iowa.”

The survey also found that 64 percent of respondents said they will definitely vote for the candidate on the 2024 ballot they chose in the survey, while 35 percent said they could change their mind and vote for someone else. 

In a hypothetical match-up between Trump, Biden and Green Party candidate Cornel West, Trump came out as the front-runner with 48 percent support, while Biden pulled 35 percent and West just 5 percent. 

“A third party candidate on the ballot changes the dynamic of the race by pulling votes from both sides,” Kimball said. “However, West’s voters are more willing to change their minds than Trump and Biden voters: 72% of West voters say they might vote for another candidate, compared to about two-thirds of Biden and Trump voters who plan on sticking with them.”

The Emerson College survey was conducted Sept. 7-9 with a sample of 893 Iowa registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points. 

Tags 2024 presidential election 2024 race Cornel West Donald Trump Doug Burgum iowa caucus Iowa caucuses Joe Biden Marianne Williamson Mike Pence Nikki Haley Republican presidential primary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Ron DeSantis Tim Scott Vivek Ramaswamy

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